Property market pound!In many places, the policy of “large scale” has been clearly signaled

2022-04-27 0 By

Sources of finance and economics the author | | deep blue Yang Bo 7 years unused “large scale” policy support.Property market “untying” speed is accelerating!It is reported that a number of big banks in Heze, Shandong province, have recently reduced the first apartment mortgage down payment ratio, the news has been confirmed locally.Specifically, those who have no house and no loan record will pay 20% down payment.For households that have no house under their name and have personal housing loan records and have been settled or actually have one house but no loan records, they can apply for loans to buy ordinary houses, and the down payment ratio can be 25%.For households that actually own one house and have corresponding purchase loan records, those who apply for loans to buy ordinary houses can pay 30% down payment.Today, according to xinhua financial news, heze city this downpayment scale adjustment is individual banks according to their own capital situation and mortgage demand, combined with the borrower’s credit status, repayment ability to make the operational differentiation adjustment, belonging to the bank’s independent operational behavior.Heze city did not adjust the down payment ratio.But even bank autonomy has been downgraded.At the same time, chongqing, Ganzhou also spread today some banks quietly lower the first set of down payment ratio to 20%.Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that since the implementation of the mortgage concentration policy in 2021, the implementation of 20% down payment ratio is very rare, so this heze released an obvious signal of real estate easing.Industry insiders said that lowering the down payment is a very clear “encouragement to buy a house”.From the overall direction of the current property market, Heze’s policy is not the probability of suspension.I believe there will be more and more places in the later period, especially the third and fourth tier cities.Because the current third – and fourth-tier property market is very weak, inventory pressure, land transfer is not ideal.For home buyers, the down payment of the house is reduced, the loan interest rate is reduced, really conducive to just need to “buy”.Deep Blue Finance reviewed mortgage policies over the last 15 years and only twice did the down payment ratio fall to 20%.For the first time, on October 27, 2008, the Central bank announced that the minimum down payment ratio was adjusted to 20%, and the floor of commercial personal housing loan interest rate was expanded to 0.7 times of the benchmark loan rate.At that time, the international financial crisis broke out in 2008, China’s economic growth rate fell rapidly, its export showed negative growth, and the economy faced the risk of a hard landing.In that year, the sales volume of commercial housing nationwide was 2.41 trillion yuan, down 18.6 percent year on year.Second, on September 30, 2014, the Central Bank announced that non-purchase restriction cities implemented the policy of 20% down payment for the first set of loans and 30% down payment for the second set of loans, and the first set of interest rates could be discounted by at least 70%.Restricted purchase cities to implement the first set of loan proportion of 30%, if the loan has been settled, the proportion of the second set of loans can also pay only 30%.At that time, China’s real estate market entered a period of adjustment, volume and price downward, commodity housing inventory around the high, the economy faced many risks.The central government has repeatedly called for “de-stocking”.That year, the national commercial housing sales of 763 million yuan, down 6.3% year on year.Both of these “down payment” policies were announced by the central bank, because at that time, there was no “tailored” housing market control mode.What happened after those two adjustments?For the first time, in 2009, the average price of the national property market reached 4,681 yuan, up 23.6% year on year.Sales totaled 4.4 trillion yuan, up 82.6 percent year on year.The overheated property market triggered the resumption of regulation at the end of 2009.For the second time, from 2015 to 2016, the average price of the national property market rose by 7.4% and 10.1% respectively.Total sales rose 14.4 percent and 34.7 percent year-on-year, respectively.The overheated property market was followed by the central government’s general tone of “housing not speculation”, which triggered the “strictest property market regulation in history” for five years starting from October 2016.Housing market repeating itself?We can see very clearly from the aforementioned two reductions in the down payment ratio that “down payment to 20%” is a very clear “signal of support” and will not be used lightly.From the experience mentioned above, once the down payment ratio is lowered, it means that the “dark hour” of the property market is coming to an end, and the “boom cycle” of the property market is coming.In most of the time, the minimum national mortgage down payment ratio is maintained at “30%”.Let’s take a look at the current housing market.This round of regulation began in October 2016.Local authorities have introduced the most severe real estate regulation and control policies in history.All the core cities are restricted to purchase and loan. It has been more than 5 years, and the results are very obvious.The country’s rapid cooling of the property market, a second-line property market also eclipsed.Head housing enterprises in succession solvency crisis, the property market fell into the freezing point.Vanke shouted property market “black iron era” arrival.Look at the housing market data for the past year.Data showed that in 2021, the year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area, sales and development investment were 1.9%, 4.8% and 4.4%, respectively, with the year-on-year growth rates all falling.Among them, the growth rate of investment in real estate development in 2021 was 4.4%, down from 7.0% in the previous year, and turned from hot to cold month by month.From January to August, investment grew by double digits.From September to November, the growth rate was between 5% and 10%.It fell below 5% in December.In January, in particular, the nationwide housing slump accelerated.According to data released by Creery Research Center, in January 2022, top 100 enterprises achieved sales of 525.6 billion yuan, down 39.6% year-on-year.Untie property market, urgent.From December 8 to 10, 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that “efforts should be made to stabilize the macroeconomic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and maintain overall social stability”.On December 11, 2021, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, reiterated that “real estate is a pillar industry”.On December 25, 2021, the Central bank stated that it would protect the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market.On February 5, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document, requiring “promoting the healthy development of housing consumption and supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers.In February 2022, the central bank lowered lending rates.Last year’s widespread mortgage shortage, slow lending and other problems have been resolved.The personage inside course of study discloses, current bank credit resource is very sufficient.Some banks are already robbing mortgage customers, and credit checks are being relaxed.To know, only half a year ago, there are many banks suspended loans, credit lines are very tight, mortgage review strictly, strictly check the source of down payment funds, strictly check the income flow, strict review of credit records.The loan cycle is as long as half a year or even a year.As long as the review is completed, the loan can be made on the second day at the earliest.So, “down payment” this big move, the first and second tier cities will follow?Industry insiders believe that the first – and second-tier cities will be more cautious.First – and second-tier cities have a large population base and strong housing demand.Cities with continued net population inflows, in particular, will be more cautious.If the policy is loosened too quickly, housing prices may be difficult to control, not in line with the general tone of “housing speculation”.An undercurrent?In the first and second tier cities, Chengdu’s second-hand housing turnover is rising fastest.From last November, Chengdu second-hand housing turnover sharply amplified.Among them, November clinched 5659 sets, January 12240 sets, February 9728 sets.For three consecutive months, the trading volume has comprehensively exceeded the highest monthly level in 2021.However, according to data from Shell Research Institute, in January 2022, the turnover of second-hand houses in 50 cities fell by about 23%.Shows that the property market is still in a cold state, especially the four first-tier cities, the data is not optimistic.Specifically, Guangzhou in January second-hand housing transactions of 7,014 units, a month-on-month rise of 0.9 percent, year-on-year in January fell 55 percent.In Beijing, 11,875 second-hand homes were sold in January, down 23.10% month-on-month and down 32% year-on-year.In Shanghai, 15, 000 second-hand homes were sold in January, down 16% from the previous month and 66% from January last year.Only 1,557 second-hand homes were sold in Shenzhen in January, down 25 per cent from the previous month and 77.8 per cent from January last year.Citic Securities believes that real estate policies will be “optimized step by step” due to city policies.At present, the policies have been relaxed, including the partial optimization of the asset disposal and pre-sale supervision of housing enterprises with risks on the supply side, the adjustment of mortgage interest rates and the adjustment of provident fund loan standards on the financial side.However, the policies have not been relaxed, including demand end limit sales, limit purchase, limit loan policy.Citic Securities believes that the current real estate policy toolbox reserves are still relatively rich, the heze policy marks the opening of the demand end of policy optimization, the follow-up is expected to be based on the sales situation and “due to the city” to promote.Previously, the three major rating agencies fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s issued a pessimistic credit outlook for the domestic real estate sector in 2022.Moody’s forecasts a 5% to 10% decline in national contract sales in 2022;S&p forecasts a decline of around 7% in residential sales in 2022;Fitch expects contract sales to shrink 10% to 15% in 2022 from 2021.2022 China’s property market, how on earth?