Year-on-year drop of 52%!Property market barometer changes, be sure to pay attention to

2022-08-07 0 By

Insiders know that the land market has always been a barometer of the property market.It not only determines market supply, but also reflects whether developers are optimistic about the real estate market.Generally speaking, the hot soil auction represents a good market, while the cold soil auction represents a bad market.Therefore, the cold and hot soil is also an important factor affecting the trend of the property market.In January this year, the national land market has indeed changed a lot compared with last year.Only, instead of getting better, it’s getting worse.The following is a chart of the supply and demand of China’s land market in the past three years released by Kerry: It can be seen that although the supply and demand of China’s land market in January every year is the lowest for the whole year, this year it hit a new low since 2019.Data showed that in January, the total construction area of the national land supply was only 94.85 million square meters, of which 22 cities implemented centralized land supply, only Beijing released the announcement of centralized land supply for the first time this year.I have seen that Beijing has also strengthened existing house sales this time. There are 9 plots for existing house sales, while there were only 5 plots for the third centralized auction last year, which can be said to be more and more popular.There is no way, now the risk of the explosion of thunder is too terrible, but the country has to protect the building, the most secure way can only be the sale of the current house.Last year, Beijing first concentrated soil beat premium rate is very low, only less than 8%, very big brother style, stable land price is no problem, and from this year’s land list, but also to central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, so the premium rate is estimated or not high.From the transaction point of view, due to the decrease in supply, the land transaction in January was only 78.51 million square meters, a month-on-month decline of up to 84%, and a year-on-year drop of 52%.Land prices followed suit, falling below 2,000 yuan per square meter for the first time since 2019 to 1,905 yuan per square meter.There are two main reasons: First, housing enterprises are out of money and their willingness to take land is not high.For one thing, the house is hard to sell.According to Kr data, the sales volume of the TOP100 real estate companies in January was only 525.6 billion yuan, down 39.6% year on year. Among them, the monthly performance of nearly 9 hundred real estate companies decreased year on year, such as Evergrande with a drop as high as 94.9%.The year-on-year growth in performance, instead, is the local small and medium enterprises, but also very few.On the other hand, banks are reluctant to finance private housing enterprises.Some private real estate enterprises told us that loans only recovered to the previous 20-30% in January this year.Banks are only willing to lend to sounder central and state-owned enterprises, since their biggest fear is bad loans.Therefore, the 30 monitoring housing enterprises, only 5 to take the land, are also based on some robust head housing enterprises.At the same time, the failure rate of land auctions in January was worse than at the end of last year, rising to 24 percent, the second highest in nearly two years.The flow is mainly concentrated in the real estate market is relatively cold cities, such as Dalian, Harbin, Jieyang, etc., dalian as a strong city in the northeast, the main urban area of 5 pieces of land unexpectedly all flow, very bleak.Once the land market is cold, the land finance in many places will be even more tight, and there will be no money for gay construction, and urban construction will be blocked.For example, in January, development loans increased by about 200 billion yuan over that of the fourth quarter of last year, and measures were introduced to regulate funds for pre-sale of commercial housing.Second, there are fewer cities with concentrated land supply, and few high-priced and high-quality land plots.In January, the average premium rate of land transaction nationwide was only 4%, and it has not returned to double digits for half a year. Although land price has been stable on the whole, local people must feel bad about it.Of course, the land market is also divided, most of the third and fourth tier cities are cold, does not mean that all cities are cold.For example, in Ningbo, where the third round of intensive land auction was completed in January, all 38 residential lands were sold, with an overall premium rate of 7.1%. Among them, 5 land parcels were still hot enough to reach the top of the lottery.For example, a few days ago, Hangzhou sold 35 commercial land parcels in one go, the total transaction price is equivalent to 38% of the whole year last year, 8 of them at a premium transaction, some of the premium rate is more than 100%.So, sometimes frantic land sales do mean a high degree of financial dependence on land, but it also depends on the city.If a city has a steady stream of people and high-end industries, land sales can actually upgrade the city to accommodate more people.03 So, how will the local auction market go this year?I think, at present, housing enterprises do not take land, in addition to the lack of money, but also worried about the land is not profitable or even loss, so even if the financing end is relaxed, the short-term willingness to take land is still very low, especially private housing enterprises.In addition, this year is a big year of mergers and acquisitions, many powerful housing enterprises may prefer to accept some good projects, also do not want to take the land, so the first half of the concentration of the land, it is estimated that many cities will not have too much improvement.Of course, unless the land auction rules continue to be relaxed, such as lowering the land price, the real estate enterprises feel profitable, feel that “do not take the loss”, it is possible to reverse the situation.Of course, if the land market continues to depression this year, then the supply of new homes next year will reduce, this year’s land market for new homes, second-hand housing stimulation, can not splash what water, but intensify the market wait-and-see mood.For just need, housing prices can not rise, naturally also conducive to the car, do not always think of “chasing the rise”, everything from the reality.In short, this year’s first concentrated soil auction is very key, the trend of the follow-up market and confidence has a great impact, to buy a house friends must pay attention to.Data source: Crease Real Estate Research Source: Property Investment PLUS